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中国“高铁外交”受阻

  China’s plan to use high-speed rail technology as a “golden business card” to spearhead a global tide of infrastructure exports has run into trouble, with the value of projects called off far exceeding those under way, a Financial Times investigation has found.

  英国《金融时报》一项调查发现,中国把高铁技术当作“黄金名片”、以带动一波全球基建出口潮流的计划遇到了麻烦,被取消项目的总价值远远超过开工项目。

  The total value of 18 Chinese high-speed rail projects overseas — including one completed, five under way and 12 more announced — amounts to $143bn, according to a study by the FT and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think-tank.

  根据由英国《金融时报》和华盛顿智库战略与国际问题研究中心(CSIS)开展的一项研究,中国18个海外高铁项目(其中包括一个已完工项目、五个在建项目、以及另外12个对外公布的项目)总价值为1430亿美元。

  The ambition of China’s use of rail for economic diplomacy rivals that of the US-led Marshall Plan to revive Europe after the second world war, to which America contributed $13bn, or the equivalent of $130bn today. But the combined estimated value of projects called off in Mexico, Myanmar, Venezuela, Libya and the US is $47.5bn, the FT estimates. That is almost double the $24.9bn for projects under way in Laos, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and two in Iran, according to CSIS estimates.

  中国把铁路用于经济外交的雄心,可以媲美二战后美国领导的复兴欧洲的马歇尔计划(Marshall Plan)。当年美国为马歇尔计划贡献了130亿美元,相当于今天的1300亿美元。但是据英国《金融时报》估计,在墨西哥、缅甸、委内瑞拉、利比亚和美国取消的高铁项目的总估计价值为475亿美元。而根据CSIS估计,在老挝、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其在建的高铁项目,以及在伊朗在建的两个高铁项目,规模总计为249亿美元。被取消项目的总价值接近在建项目的两倍。

  

中国“高铁外交”受阻.jpg

 

  The failures are a blow to China’s reputation for engineering expertise and project management. In 2015, Li Keqiang, the premier, lionised high-speed rail as a way to showcase China’s technology and competitiveness.

  上述失败对于中国工程技术和项目管理的声誉是一个打击。2015年,中国总理李克强将高铁捧为展示中国技术和竞争力的途径。

  Each cancelled project was scuppered after agreements were announ-ced by Beijing and the recipient governments. The reasons cited for scrapping the projects included allegations by recipients of insufficient transparency, delays by Chinese contractors and popular opposition. In Libya, the 2011 civil war ended a planned line between Tripoli and Sirte, the former dictator Muammer Gaddafi’s hometown.

  每个被取消的项目都是在北京方面和接受项目的政府公布协议后泡汤的。被提及的项目取消原因,包括接受国家有关透明度不够的指控、中国承建商的延误、以及民众的反对。在利比亚,2011年内战终结了原计划从的黎波里到苏尔特的线路。苏尔特是利比亚前独裁者穆阿迈尔?卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的家乡。

  The cancellations come despite China’s cost advantages. A 2014 World Bank report found building high-speed rail with a top speed of 350km per hour costs $17m-$21m per km in China, compared with $25m-$39m in Eur-ope and as much as $56m in California.

  这些项目是在中国确实具有成本优势的情况下被取消的。2014年世界银行(WB)一份报告发现,在中国修建最高时速为350公里的高铁,成本为每公里1700万美元到2100万美元,相比之下在欧洲该成本为2500万美元至3900万美元,在加利福尼亚州则高达5600万美元。

  But such advantages can be offset by other drawbacks when Chinese companies work in alien political and business environments, analysts said. Long delays have become commonplace.

  不过,分析师表示,这种优势可能会被中国企业在陌生的政治和商业环境中工作所带来的不利因素抵消。项目的长期拖延已变得十分常见。

  Thailand’s military junta this month approved $5.3bn for a Chinese-built high-speed rail line that had been delayed for years, partly because of controversy over the reluctance of Chinese companies to hire Thai engineers.

  本月,泰国军政府批准了53亿美元拨款,投入由中方承建的一条高速铁路线。此前该项目被拖延多年,部分是由于中企不愿雇用泰国工程师所引发的争议。


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